No one is safe: the death of the sailing superyacht Bayesian

Briefing: What happened off the coast of Sicily?

The sailing superyacht Bayesian sank in the early morning of August 19. As of August 23, 2024 (material preparation), seven people have been confirmed dead. A storm began on the night from Sunday to Monday. At the same time, Bayesian was anchored off the coast of Sicily, in Porticello. This is confirmed by data from the Vesselfinder website.

In the early morning hours of August 19, the Bayesian suffered critical damage and sank. There were 22 people on board – 10 crew members and 12 guests. Fifteen people were saved, including a one-year-old baby. For five days, rescuers tried to find the remaining crew members and the yacht’s owner, billionaire Mike Lynch. 

On August 23, the BBC and other news agencies confirmed that all of the missing, including Lynch, had died. The investigation continues.

Eyewitness accounts

One of the crew members who was on deck at the fateful moment reported that Bayesian was "hit by a strange weather phenomenon." The same "phenomenon" caused the yacht to list 20 degrees to starboard. According to eyewitnesses, the crew began to hurriedly secure equipment and belongings on the deck, but the list increased. As a result, Bayesian began to take on water and quickly sank.

But the oddities don't stop at "weather phenomena." There were several vessels in the vicinity of the Bayesian, including a fishing boat and a small craft. The captain of the vessel reported that as soon as the storm began, he turned on the engine and took all safety precautions. He said he moved a safe distance from both the shore and the Bayesian. Meanwhile, the Bayesian appeared to remain at anchor. 

Giovanni Costantino, the owner of the Perini Navi shipyard that launched the Bayesian, has his own point of view. According to him, the only real culprit of the tragedy is the human factor. According to Giovanni, there were no "sudden weather events"; the crew was dealing with an ordinary, albeit very strong, storm. Giovanni says: "Passengers and crew members are reporting something absurd, that the storm came unexpectedly and suddenly. This is not true, everything was predictable. The weather forecast made it clear that bad weather was approaching." 

However, even the incorrect forecast did not prevent nearby ships from drifting or at least preparing for bad weather. Among such ships was the yacht Sir Robert: a 42-meter schooner, which soon came to the rescue during the rescue operation. Costantino also criticized the work of the crew - the crew members had to batten down the hatches and gather all the guests on deck, preparing for an emergency evacuation. As the divers' dive showed, some of the guests remained in their cabins.

Causes of Bayesian Flooding

The influence of the human factor is confirmed by divers' dives to the sunken yacht. Thus, experts managed to find out the following:

• The Bayesian's telescopic keel has been partially raised - the operating brochure states that the keel should be fully lowered in adverse conditions for added stability to the yacht.
• The tender compartment was not tightly sealed - the dive revealed that the hatch to the tender and water toys compartment was not fully closed, which could have led to rapid water ingress into the hull.
• Bayesian was anchored in a fairly strong storm with squall winds – it is extremely dangerous to leave a yacht at anchor during a storm. In addition, Bayesian had the tallest mast of any sailing yacht in the world; without a counterweight in the form of a keel and being secured at anchor, the superyacht could easily be capsized by squall winds, which led to flooding of open windows and hatches.

As Costantino rightly pointed out, Perini Navi yachts survived Hurricane Katrina, but it is strange that one of the most advanced yachts did not survive a severe storm. Even if the yacht sank due to technical problems, this does not relieve the crew of responsibility for the fact that Bayesian remained at anchor during the storm.

Bayesian has a sistership called Rosehearty. Captain David Hutchinson also shared his genuine surprise at the tragedy on Bayesian. David says, “I’ve sailed around the world many times and I have complete confidence in this boat. We’ve been to Antarctica, Chile, we’ve experienced 70 knots of wind. There was never a situation on this boat where anything was out of control.” 

At the same time, Hutchinson notes that there are differences between Bayesian and Rosehearty. Bayesian's mast was heavier and larger than Rosehearty's. The sail area was also larger. The layout was different: Bayesian's guest cabins were closer to the bow. Despite the design differences, Bayesian and Rosehearty were not as strikingly different as they might seem. The words of the "sister ship's" captain should be taken into account.

Consequences and further investigation

The search for the dead is over. Six of the seven victims were guests of the yacht, the only crew member who died was the cook. According to preliminary estimates, the yacht sank in 10-15 minutes. An anonymous source reports that water entered through the open upper doors and windows. This is confirmed by divers - no holes were found in the hull. The mast is also intact. The Bayesian is planned to be raised from the bottom. 

The prosecutor's office in the Italian city of Termini Imerse is conducting an official investigation into the sinking of the yacht. Representatives from the UK are participating in the investigation, as the Bayesian was registered under that flag.

Another anonymous source claims that a small but powerful tornado may have caused the sinking. It tilted the Bayesian enough to allow water to enter through the open hatches, and the anchor chain and the lack of stability due to the keel not being lowered only accelerated the process. 

Updated August 27, 2024

During the investigation, the yacht's skipper, James Cutfield, was charged with manslaughter. In total, two rounds of interrogations took place, during which some inconsistencies were revealed. In particular, the investigators were questioning the 32-minute time interval between the yacht's sinking and the launch of a signal flare that would have warned nearby vessels of the danger.

CCTV footage shows Bayes' superyacht minutes before it sank

According to a detailed analysis of some of the onboard equipment recovered from the bottom, the yacht had been “dangerously rolling” since 3:50 a.m. Minutes later, the anchor or anchor chain of the Bayesian broke. By 3:59 a.m., according to a source close to the investigation, the yacht was being tossed about by waves and strong currents. By that point, the Bayesian had been thrown 358 meters from its moorings. At 4 a.m., the yacht began taking on water. At around 4:05 a.m., the hull disappeared under the water.

The "unusual phenomenon" was a waterspout. Despite early speculation that the yacht sank around 5am, AIS data suggests the tragedy occurred an hour earlier.

Afterword

Alas, the lives of the Bayesian guests can no longer be returned. This story, not entirely clear and strange, should be a lesson for every yachtsman and yachtswoman. No matter how unsinkable a yacht is, the human factor can lead to flooding. 

Be aware of the danger of storms, take all possible steps to ensure your own safety and do not count on the weather's favor. Nature is a terrible, albeit very beautiful beast. 

We wish everyone calm waters and seven feet under the keel!

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27.08.2024